{"id":65,"date":"2009-03-16T21:18:19","date_gmt":"2009-03-17T01:18:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/?p=65"},"modified":"2009-06-15T15:21:00","modified_gmt":"2009-06-15T19:21:00","slug":"is-climate-change-accelerating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/2009\/03\/is-climate-change-accelerating\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Climate Change Accelerating?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Over the last two years, evidence has accumulated that the IPCC reports released just two years ago underestimate the pace of climate change. Nature provides <a title=\"Nature 12 March 2009\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/news\/2009\/090312\/full\/news.2009.165.html\" target=\"_blank\">this summary<\/a>. See also this <a title=\"Science Daily\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencedaily.com\/releases\/2009\/02\/090214162648.htm\" target=\"_blank\">article in Science Daily<\/a>; and there are <a title=\"DW-World-DE\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dw-world.de\/dw\/article\/0,,3907790,00.html\" target=\"_blank\">plenty<\/a> <a title=\"Times Online\" href=\"http:\/\/www.timesonline.co.uk\/tol\/news\/environment\/article5371682.ece\">more<\/a> <a title=\"Gristmill on Glacier National Park\" href=\"http:\/\/gristmill.grist.org\/story\/2009\/3\/3\/163426\/7076\">like<\/a>\u00a0it;<\/p>\n<p>Emissions from fossil fuels growing faster than any of the scenarios included in the IPCC reports (<a title=\"Science Daily on Emissions speedup\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencedaily.com\/releases\/2008\/09\/080925072440.htm\" target=\"_blank\">news article<\/a> ; original paper\u00a0<a title=\"PNAS vol 104, no 24\" href=\"http:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/104\/24\/10288.abstract\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>). And recent studies indicate the <a title=\"PNAS Jan 28, 2009\" href=\"http:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/early\/2009\/01\/28\/0812721106.abstract\" target=\"_blank\">effects are irreversible.<\/a>, at least for the next 1000 years.<\/p>\n<p>Arctic Sea Ice, which is probably the most obvious &#8220;canary in the coal mine&#8221; is melting faster than the models predicted, and will likely never recover (<a title=\"International Polar Year\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ipy.org\/index.php?\/ipy\/detail\/arctic_sea_ice_will_probably_not_recover\/\" target=\"_blank\">Story from IPY here)<\/a>;\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melting 100 years ahead of schedule (<a title=\"CSM on Ice sheets melting\" href=\"http:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/2006\/0324\/p01s03-sten.html\" target=\"_blank\">news report<\/a>; original papers <a title=\"Science 311 p1747-1750\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/cgi\/content\/abstract\/sci;311\/5768\/1747?maxtoshow=&amp;HITS=10&amp;hits=10&amp;RESULTFORMAT=&amp;andorexacttitleabs=and&amp;andorexactfulltext=and&amp;searchid=1&amp;FIRSTINDEX=0&amp;volume=311&amp;firstpage=1747&amp;resourcetype=HWCIT\">here<\/a> and <a title=\"Sicence 311, p1751\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/cgi\/content\/short\/311\/5768\/1751\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>). Meanwhile new studies show the effect on the coastlines will be worse than previously thought, especially in North America and around the Indian Ocean (press release <a title=\"U of T press release\" href=\"http:\/\/www.news.utoronto.ca\/science-and-technology\/university-of-toronto-geophysicists-predict-amplification-of-sealevel-rise-1.html\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>; original paper <a title=\"Science 323 p753\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/cgi\/content\/abstract\/323\/5915\/753\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Sea level rise following the worst case scenario given in the IPCC reports (<a title=\"New Scientist on Sea level rise\" href=\"http:\/\/www.newscientist.com\/article\/dn11083\">news report<\/a>; original paper <a title=\"Science 316 p709\" href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/cgi\/content\/abstract\/316\/5825\/709\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a> and here).<\/p>\n<p>Oceans soaking up less CO2, and hence losing their role as a carbon sink. (<a title=\"BBC News on Oceans as carbon sinks\" href=\"http:\/\/news.bbc.co.uk\/2\/hi\/uk_news\/7053903.stm\" target=\"_blank\">news report<\/a>; original paper <a title=\"JGR vol 112, Nov 2007\" href=\"http:\/\/www.agu.org\/pubs\/crossref\/2007\/2006JC003941.shtml\">here<\/a>)\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And finally some emerging evidence of massive methane releases as the permafrost melts (<a title=\"The Independent\" href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/environment\/climate-change\/exclusive-the-methane-time-bomb-938932.html\" target=\"_blank\">news report<\/a>; no peer-reviewed paper yet).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the last two years, evidence has accumulated that the IPCC reports released just two years ago underestimate the pace of climate change. Nature provides this summary. See also this article in Science Daily; and there are plenty more like\u00a0it; Emissions from fossil fuels growing faster than any of the scenarios included in the IPCC [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":392,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[30,29,28],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/392"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":630,"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65\/revisions\/630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}