It took another ten years before an international agreement to cut emissions was reached: the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Hailed as a success at the time, it became clear over the ensuing years that\u00a0with non-binding targets, the agreement was pretty much a sham. Under Kyoto, Canada agreed to cut emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by the 2008-2012 period. It didn’t happen.<\/p>\n
At the Copenhagen talks in 2009, Canada proposed\u00a0an even weaker goal: 17% below 2005 levels (which corresponds to 1.5% above<\/strong><\/em> 1990 levels) by 2020. Given that emissions have risen steadily since then, it probably won’t happen.\u00a0By 2011, facing an embarrassing gap between its Kyoto targets and reality, the Harper administration formally withdrew from Kyoto – the only country ever to do so.<\/p>\n Last year, in preparation for the Paris talks, the Harper administration submitted\u00a0a new commitment: 30% below 2005 levels\u00a0by 2030. At first sight it seems better than previous goals. But it includes a large slice of expected international credits and carbon sequestered in wood products, as Canada incorporates\u00a0Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) into its carbon accounting. In terms of actual cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the target represents<\/a> approximately 8% above<\/strong><\/em> 1990 levels.<\/p>\n The new government, elected in October 2015,\u00a0trumpeted a renewed\u00a0approach to climate change, arguing that Canada should be a world leader again. At the Paris talks in 2015, the Trudeau administration proudly supported both the UN’s commitment to keep global temperatures below 2\u00b0C of warming (compared to the pre-industrial average), and voiced strong support for an even tougher limit of 1.5\u00b0C. However, the\u00a0government has chosen to stick with the Harper administration’s original Paris\u00a0targets.<\/p>\n It is clear that that the global commitments under the Paris agreement fall a long way short of what is needed to stay below 2\u00b0C<\/a>, and Canada’s commitment has been rated as one of the weakest<\/a>. Based on IPCC assessments, to limit warming below\u00a02\u00b0C, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to be cut by about 50% by 2030<\/a>, and eventually reach\u00a0zero net emissions\u00a0globally (which will probably mean zero use of fossil fuels, as assumptions about negative emissions seem rather implausible<\/a>). As Canada has much greater wealth and access to resources than most nations, much greater per capita emissions than all but a few nations, and much greater historical responsibility for emissions than most nations, a “fair” effort would have Canada cutting emissions much faster than the global average, to allow room for poorer nations to grow their emissions, at least initially, to alleviate poverty. Carbon Action Tracker suggests<\/a> 67% below 1990 emissions by 2030 is a fair target for Canada.<\/p>\n Here’s what all of this looks like – click for bigger version. Note: emissions data from Government of Canada<\/a>; the Toronto 1988 target was never formally adopted, but was Liberal party policy in the early 90’s. Global 2\u00b0C pathway 2030 target from SEI<\/a>; \u00a0Emissions projection, LULUCF adjustment, and “fair” 2030 target from CAT<\/a>.<\/p>\n
![\"Canada's](\"http:\/\/www.easterbrook.ca\/steve\/wp-content\/Canada-Climate-Targets-1-1024x650.png\")
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